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2025 NBA West Semis G6 Preview - Oklahoma City vs. Denver:
Can the Nuggets avoid elimination at home?

May 15, 2025 by Marc Jerbs

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets clash in a crucial Game 6 of the 2025 Western Conference Semifinals on May 15 at 8:30 PM EDT, hosted at Ball Arena in Denver. Holding a 3-2 series lead, the Thunder are just one win away from securing a spot in the Conference Finals.

Team Overview and Series Narrative

Oklahoma City, the West's top seed after a stellar 68-14 regular season, enters Game 6 with momentum and a deep, well-rounded roster. Led by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - who averaged 32.7 points, 6.4 assists, and 5 rebounds - the Thunder have thrived with their defensive pressure and bench depth. Their resilience was on full display in Game 5, where they overcame a late deficit to win 112-105. Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 31 points, while Lu Dort's defensive grit and timely shooting helped seal the victory.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets finished the regular season at 50-32 and have battled through injuries throughout the playoffs. Nikola Jokić remains the engine of Denver's offense, nearly averaging a triple-double this season with 30 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists per game. However, his heavy workload and recent shooting inefficiency have raised questions about fatigue. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are key contributors, though Porter has been hampered by a shoulder injury that's impacted his shooting form. With their backs against the wall, the Nuggets must rally at home to force a decisive Game 7.

Oklahoma City vs. Denver Sports Bet Odds

The Thunder are the favorites to win the game. Here are our latest odds:

• The Thunder are favored by 4.5 points, with a money line of -190.
• The Nuggets are the underdogs by 4.5 points, with a money line of +165.
• The Total is set at 216.5 points, with both the Over and Under at -110.

Key Matchups and Strategic Factors

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Nikola Jokić
Gilgeous-Alexander continues to lead with poise, delivering clutch performances like his Game 5 effort. Jokić, though dominant with a 44-point, 15-rebound outing in the same game, has shouldered a massive offensive load, which has visibly worn on both him and Murray.

Supporting Cast Contributions
The Thunder have benefitted from strong performances by rising stars Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, whose consistent production adds balance behind their lead scorer. In contrast, Denver's supporting cast has struggled to deliver in high-pressure moments, with their bench shooting particularly ineffective in Game 5.

Fatigue and Conditioning
Fatigue looms as a significant factor for Denver. Jokić played the entire second half of Game 5, while Murray logged all 12 minutes of the fourth quarter. The Thunder may hold an endurance edge, especially with fresher legs and a more effective rotation.

Injury Updates

Oklahoma City
The Thunder remain mostly healthy. Nikola Topić is sidelined for the season with an ACL injury, while Jalen Williams continues to play through a wrist issue without noticeable limitations.

Denver
The Nuggets will be without DaRon Holmes (Achilles) and Hunter Tyson (ankle), both out for the season. Michael Porter Jr. is expected to play despite a nagging left shoulder injury.

Final Outlook

Game 6 promises to be a tense, high-stakes encounter between a confident Thunder squad and a seasoned Nuggets team fighting to keep their championship hopes alive. Oklahoma City will lean on Gilgeous-Alexander's leadership and their bench's versatility, while Denver will need a herculean effort from Jokić and more consistent production from their role players. The outcome could hinge on whether Jokić can overcome fatigue and whether Denver's supporting cast can rise to the moment. Expect an intense, strategic battle with a trip to the Western Conference Finals hanging in the balance.

2025 Comparative Oklahoma City vs. Denver Postseason Stats

Oklahoma City Thunder	VS	Denver Nuggets
117.3	Points Per Game	107.2
47.1	Rebounds Per Game	45.9
25.3	Assists Per Game	22.5
10.0	Steals Per Game	7.7
10.9	Turnovers Per Game	14.3

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